Class 8: Movements

Mobilisation and movements

Dr. Michael C. Zeller

Opening notes

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Presentation groups

Date Presenters Method
5 June: Rasmus B., Andre D., Josefine E., Ioanna L., Santiago C. surveys
12 June: Omar B., Lela E., Niclas W. network analysis
19 June: NO CLASS MEETING
26 June: Colombe I., Konstantin S., Jakob W., Veronika L. ethnography
26 June: Maksim K., Felix S., Jon L.D., Damir S., Korbinian M. case study
Date Presenters Method
3 July: Alexander V., Luis G., Oscar O., Mia C. descriptive inference
10 July: Lina S., Stephen W., Philomena B., Aarón Z. ethnography
17 July: Corinna Z., Eva M., and Rostislav N. TBD
24 July: Sebastian K., Thomas R., Emilia Z., Florian P. TBD
24 July: Lorenz F., Daniel B., Medina H. quant. text analysis
Presentations line-up
Date Presenters Method
15 May: Idil M., Zeynep P., Liesl W., Selin K., Chiara W. logistic regression
22 May: Gabriel W., Lina M., Florian S., Julian B. discourse analysis
29 May: NO CLASS MEETING

Data report: reminders, clarifications

  • intentionally different from a ‘normal’ essay
    • less theory, literature review → more (basic) empirics
    • ‘back to basics’: good description before ‘complex’ arguments
    1. description is necessary for ii. explanation or iii. prediction
  • intentionally vague requirements about data type
    • extant data, modified data, wholly new data—all possible
    • in any case, you should be thinking about how data is created and to what extent it is valid and reliable
  • purpose: (1) data strength and limitations awareness, (2) ‘get hands dirty with data’ (before thesis!), (3) building blocks for (thesis) research: concepts, methods, (good) empirical material

Social movement lens on the far right

  • overlap, interconnection with parties
    • movement-parties
    • parties with movement roots
    • collaboration of movements and parties
  • types of movement impacts
  • discussion: far-right movement goals that extend beyond political institutions
Fist Pump Fist Stickerfrom Fist Pump Stickers

Movements and parties, overlaps and similarities

  • All sorts of constellations of movements and parties
  • Some far-right movement-parties, as discussed last week
  • Several major far-right parties have movement roots, e.g. Front National (Castelli Gattinara and Pirro 2019)
  • More importantly, whether movement or party, many far-right actors:
    • develop collective identities
    • frame issues
    • mobilise and strategically use resources
  • these and other social movement concepts can help understand lots of far-right activity

Movement impacts

Movement impacts

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cultural

Movement impacts

icons created by Flaticon

political

cultural

Movement impacts

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organisational

political

cultural

Movement impacts

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individual

organisational

political

cultural

Movement impacts - individual

individual

  • did people who participated change? how?
    • interpersonal connections (likely future movement particiation)
  • did people who encountered the movement change? how?
    • different issue attention/focus? different attitudes?
  • participants, attitudinally: radicalised? disillusioned? behaviourally: more extreme? burnout?
  • onlookers responses: on immigration, culture? support/oppose?

Movement impacts

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individual

organisational

political

cultural

Movement impacts - organisational

organisational

  • a targeted organisation?
    • changed behaviour? organisational decline?
  • the movement’s own (or connected) organisation(s)?
    • professionalisation, institutionalisation
    • new affiliate organisations (perhaps parties, businesses)
  • targeted organisation: e.g., changed (political) financing activity, policies (as with platforms content moderation), hindered org.’s activity

Movement impacts

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individual

organisational

political

cultural

Movement impacts - political

political

  • have debates/discourse changed?

  • have policies or laws changed?

  • have dynamics between political actors changed?

  • have new political actors emerged because of the movement?

  • see Giugni, Mcadam, and Tilly (1999) and Amenta et al. (2010)

Movement impacts

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individual

organisational

political

cultural

Movement impacts - cultural

cultural

  • have cultural/societal norms changed because of the movement? how?
    • are certain ideas, behaviours now acceptable or no longer acceptable in:
      • public opinion, lifestyle trends
      • media and popular culture
      • non-political institutions (e.g., research and education, religion)
  • see Amenta and Polletta (2019)
  • e.g., immigration views compared to two/three decades ago; acceptance of certain political rhetoric; approval of ‘strong man’ leadership in Western democracies

Movement impacts

icons created by Flaticon

individual

organisational

political

cultural

Far-right movement goals discussion

  • we have discussed far-right goals in institutional politics, but…

What are some goals of contemporary far-right movements that are not particular to institutional politics?

for many extra-institutional goals it is far-right movements (more than other actors) that have a major impact

A less likely case of far-right movement influence - the Istanbul Convention

Gender Ideology Meme GIFfrom Gender Ideology GIFs

Istanbul Convention politicisation

Opponents criticize the Convention’s explicit linkage between gender-based violence and structural gendered inequalities between women and men, the definition of gender in Article 3(c) as “the socially constructed roles, behavior, activities, and attributes that a given society considers appropriate for women and men,” and Arts. 12–16 that require states to “promote changes in the social and cultural patterns of behavior of women and men” by means of education and other methods. The Convention depicted as spreading “gender-ideology” and a threat to traditional values and gender roles … became a target of anti-gender campaigns in Europe

Istanbul Convention ratification status

Ratification of the Istanbul Convention by Council of Europe member states (EU member states in italics). Turkey (*) withdrew from the IC.

RatificationStatus Countries
Ratified in 2012 Turkey*
Ratified in 2013 Albania, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Italy, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia
Ratified in 2014 Andorra, Denmark, France, Malta, Monaco, Spain, Sweden
Ratified in 2015 Finland, Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia
Ratified in 2016 Belgium, Romania, San Marino
Ratified in 2017 Cyprus, Estonia, Georgia, Germany, Norway, Switzerland
Ratified in 2018 Croatia, Greece, Iceland, Luxembourg, North Macedonia
Ratified in 2019 Ireland
Ratified in 2022 Ukraine, United Kingdom
Not ratified as of March 2021 Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Lichtenstein, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Slovakia

Istanbul Convention ratification and right-wing gov.

Rejecting the Istanbul Convention

  • strong oppositional movements (proxied by ‘OPPG’) often influential in rejecting the IC
Grouping SolutionTerm InclS PRI CovS CovU Cases
unbridled resisters RGOV* OPPG* ~WEQU* ~EUC 0.886 0.837 0.586 0.378 Latvia; Azerbaijan, Russia; Bulgaria; Hungary
secular illiberalism RGOV* ~HRM* ~WPOW* ~WEQU* ~EUC 0.864 0.776 0.188 0.030 Czechia; Hungary
backsliders LDB* RGOV* OPPG* HRM* ~WPOW* ~WEQU 0.756 0.715 0.159 0.109 Turkey
Solution 0.871 0.830 0.725

far-right socio-politics has succeeded through cultural shifts/openings, won more by movements than parties

Ratifying the Istanbul Convention

by the same token…

various movements have been instrumental in achieving many progressive political, cultural objectives

the push and pull of opposed movements is contentious politics

Poll: matters of FR mobilisation

A QR code for the survey.

Take the survey at https://forms.gle/LNPvbC4h9QbycWYL7

  • which year do you guess was far-right social mobilisation most frequent?

  • most prominent far-right protest issue?

  • most common far-right mobilisation form?

  • what to do when non-violent far-right demonstrations are met with disruptive, possibly violent counter-mobilisation?

  • should governments or state authorities be able to prohibit far-right demonstrations even if they are non-violent?

Most active year

Most prominent issue

Most common tactic

Mobilisation: periods, spaces, issues

Protest GIFfrom Protest GIFs

Most active mobilisation in recent years

Italy
UK
Germany

Far-right demonstrations in Germany

  • Identified in gov. responses to parliamentary inquiries (Anfrage)
de_demos
# A tibble: 3,451 × 14
   Datum      Land    Ort   Veranstalter Anmelder Zuordnung Motto Teiln. Country
   <date>     <chr>   <chr> <lgl>        <lgl>    <chr>     <chr>  <dbl> <chr>  
 1 2005-01-15 Sachse… Magd… NA           NA       Neonazis… Bomb…   1000 Germany
 2 2005-01-15 Bayern  Nürn… NA           NA       Neonazis… Gege…     80 Germany
 3 2005-01-17 Meckle… Stra… NA           NA       NPD/JN    Gege…      8 Germany
 4 2005-01-18 Nordrh… Reck… NA           NA       Neonazis… Stop…     70 Germany
 5 2005-01-21 Baden-… Schw… NA           NA       Neonazis… Bürg…     30 Germany
 6 2005-01-22 Nordrh… Moers NA           NA       Neonazis… Nein…    100 Germany
 7 2005-01-23 Nordrh… Herne NA           NA       Neonazis… Gege…     30 Germany
 8 2005-01-26 Nordrh… Hamm  NA           NA       Neonazis… Kein…    160 Germany
 9 2005-01-28 Nordrh… Hamm  NA           NA       Neonazis… Gege…    110 Germany
10 2005-01-29 Schles… Kiel  NA           NA       Neonazis… Gege…    450 Germany
# ℹ 3,441 more rows
# ℹ 5 more variables: lat <dbl>, long <dbl>, Jahr <date>, Latitude <dbl>,
#   Longitude <dbl>

Far-right demonstrations in Germany

  • Identified in gov. responses to parliamentary inquiries (Anfrage)
de_demos %>% 
  mutate(month=floor_date(Datum, "month")) %>% 
  group_by(month) %>% summarise(Num=n())
# A tibble: 236 × 2
   month        Num
   <date>     <int>
 1 2005-01-01    13
 2 2005-02-01     1
 3 2005-03-01    13
 4 2005-04-01    15
 5 2005-05-01    20
 6 2005-06-01    12
 7 2005-07-01    13
 8 2005-08-01    20
 9 2005-09-01    23
10 2005-10-01    16
# ℹ 226 more rows

Far-right demonstrations in Germany

  • Identified in gov. responses to parliamentary inquiries (Anfrage)
de_demos %>% 
  mutate(month=floor_date(Datum, "month")) %>% 
  group_by(month) %>% summarise(Num=n()) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x=month, y=Num))+ geom_bar(stat="identity")

Far-right demonstrations in Germany

de_demos %>% 
  mutate(month=floor_date(Datum, "month")) %>% 
  group_by(month) %>% summarise(Num=n()) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x=month, y=Num))+ geom_bar(stat="identity")+
  scale_x_date("", labels=scales::date_format("%b %Y"), breaks="6 month",
            limits=c(min(as.Date(de_demos$Datum)),max(as.Date(de_demos$Datum))),expand=c(0,0))+
  theme_minimal()+ylab("")+
  theme(text=element_text(size=38),
        axis.text.x=element_text(angle=90, hjust=1, vjust=0.5))

Far-right demonstrations in Germany

library(tmap)
library(tidyverse)
library(sf)
library(rnaturalearth)
library(gganimate)
library(gifski)

de_demos$Jahr <- format(
  as.Date(de_demos$Jahr), format="%Y"
  )

de_demos_grouped <- de_demos %>% 
  group_by(Ort, Jahr, lat, long) %>%
  summarise(protests = n(),
            .groups = "drop")

de_demos_grouped <- as.data.frame(
  de_demos_grouped
  )

de_demos_grouped$Latitude <- de_demos_grouped$lat
de_demos_grouped$Longitude <- de_demos_grouped$long

de_demos_grouped_sf <- de_demos_grouped %>% 
  drop_na(lat)

de_demos_grouped_sf <- de_demos_grouped_sf %>% 
  st_as_sf(
    coords=c("long", "lat"),
    crs=st_crs("EPSG:32632") # CRS for DE
  )

DE = ne_states(returnclass="sf") |>
  filter(admin=="Germany") 

st_crs(de_demos_grouped_sf) <- st_crs(DE)

fr_prot_anim <- tm_shape(DE)+
  tm_polygons(fill="gold", 
              col="darkolivegreen")+
  tm_shape(de_demos_grouped_sf)+
  tm_bubbles(shape=21, 
             size="protests", 
             col="red", 
             scale=8, 
             alpha=0.5, 
             border.col="black")+
  tm_facets(pages="Jahr")+
  tm_layout(panel.label.size=4, 
            panel.label.color='black',
            panel.label.bg.color='grey', 
            panel.label.height=3,
            legend.text.size=1.5)
tmap_animation(
  fr_prot_anim, 
  filename = "fr_prot_anim.gif",
  delay = 50, 
  width = 1200, height = 1200
)

Far-right demonstrations in Italy

FARPO %>% 
  filter(Country_string=="Italy") %>% 
  mutate(month=floor_date(Date, "month")) %>% 
  group_by(month) %>% summarise(Num=n()) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x=month, y=Num))+ geom_bar(stat="identity")+
  scale_x_date("", labels=scales::date_format("%b %Y"), breaks="6 month",
            limits=c(min(as.Date(FARPO$Date)),max(as.Date(FARPO$Date))),expand=c(0,0))+
  theme_minimal()+ylab("")+
  theme(text=element_text(size=38),
        axis.text.x=element_text(angle=90, hjust=1, vjust=0.5))

Far-right demonstrations in Italy

Far-right demonstrations in the UK

frgb %>% 
  mutate(month=floor_date(Date, "month")) %>% 
  group_by(month) %>% summarise(Num=n()) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x=month, y=Num))+ geom_bar(stat="identity")+
  scale_x_date("", labels=scales::date_format("%b %Y"), breaks="6 month",
            limits=c(min(as.Date(frgb$Date)),max(as.Date(frgb$Date))),expand=c(0,0))+
  theme_minimal()+ylab("")+
  theme(text=element_text(size=38),
        axis.text.x=element_text(angle=90, hjust=1, vjust=0.5))

Far-right demonstrations in the UK

Issues (FARPO - all countries)

f_iss1 <- FARPO %>% 
  group_by(Issue1_string) %>% 
  summarise(Num=n()) %>% 
  as.data.frame() %>% 
  rename(Issue=Issue1_string)

f_iss2 <- FARPO %>% 
  group_by(Issue2_string) %>% 
  summarise(Num=n()) %>% 
  as.data.frame() %>% 
  rename(Issue=Issue2_string)

f_iss3 <- FARPO %>% 
  group_by(Issue3_string) %>% 
  summarise(Num=n()) %>% 
  as.data.frame() %>% 
  rename(Issue=Issue3_string)

merged_iss <- purrr::reduce(list(f_iss1, f_iss2, f_iss3), 
                            function(x, y) merge(x, y, by="Issue", all=TRUE))

iss_final <- merged_iss %>%
  group_by(Issue) %>%
  summarise(Num=sum(coalesce(Num.x, 0), coalesce(Num.y, 0), coalesce(Num, 0))) %>% 
  slice(-1:-11) %>% 
  as.data.frame()

library(ggwordcloud)

set.seed(1)
ggplot(iss_final, aes(label=Issue, size=Num, color=Num)) +
  geom_text_wordcloud() +
  scale_size_area(max_size=10) +
  theme_minimal()+
  scale_color_gradient(low="blue", high="red")

Issues (BT Anfrage - from reported ‘Motto’ of event)

Far-right mobilisation under left- and right-wing governments

  • Koopmans and Rucht (1995): data on protests 1975-1979 in France, Britain, the Netherlands, and Germany (1950-1991) – represents 15 different governmental constellations (left, right, mixed)
    • far-right protest increases under left-wing governments
    • left-wing protest increases under right-wing governments
    • mixed governments see the highest overall protest levels

Far-right mobilisation amid left- and right-wing party politics

  • Hutter (2014): data from Western Europe
    • far-right protest decreases when far-right parties are well-established, strong
      • substitution effect: electoral participation replaces street politics
  • Torcal, Rodon, and Hierro (2016): 2002-2010 ESS data (much of EU space) on protest participation
    • far-right protest slightly higher under right-wing governments

Far-right mobilisation in context

  • seems heavily influenced by conditions of political exclusion
  • ideological posture of government matters—but not deterministic
    • movements respond not just to posture abstractly, but also to actual specific treatment
      • gov. tolerance/encouragement can increase far-right protest
      • gov. hostility/repressive action can suppress or provoke far-right protest
  • institutionalisation of far-right parties may reduce protest activity

Poll results - prohibition

  • Should governments or state authorities be able to prohibit far-right demonstrations even if they are non-violent?

Poll results - amid disruptive counter-mobilisation

  • What should authorities do when non-violent far-right demonstrations are met with disruptive, possibly violent counter-mobilisation (e.g., from anti-fascist activists)?

these perennial questions permeate our next two class topics (counter-mobilisation and demobilisation)

Any questions, concerns, feedback for this class?

Anonymous feedback here: https://forms.gle/pisUmtmWdE13zMD58

Alternatively, send me an email: m.zeller@lmu.de

References

Allchorn, William, and Andreas Dafnos. 2021. “Far-Right Mobilisations in Great Britain, 2009-2020.” London: Centre for the Analysis of the Radical Right.
Amenta, Edwin, Neal Caren, Elizabeth Chiarello, and Yang Su. 2010. “The Political Consequences of Social Movements.” Annual Review of Sociology 36 (1): 287–307. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-070308-120029.
Amenta, Edwin, and Francesca Polletta. 2019. “The Cultural Impacts of Social Movements.” Annual Review of Sociology 45: 279–99. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-073018.
Castelli Gattinara, Pietro, Caterina Froio, and Andrea L. P. Pirro. 2022. “Far-Right Protest Mobilisation in Europe: Grievances, Opportunities and Resources.” European Journal of Political Research 61 (4): 1019–41. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12484.
Castelli Gattinara, Pietro, and Andrea L. P. Pirro. 2019. “The Far Right as Social Movement.” European Societies 21 (4): 447–62. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2018.1494301.
Giugni, Marco, Doug Mcadam, and Charles Tilly. 1999. How Social Movements Matter. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Hutter, Swen. 2014. Protesting Culture and Economics in Western Europe: New Cleavages in Left and Right Politics. Vol. 41. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Koopmans, Ruud, and Dieter Rucht. 1995. “Social Movement Mobilization Under Right and Left Governments: A Look at Four West European Countries.” Berlin: Das Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung.
Krizsán, Andrea, Conny Roggeband, and Michael C Zeller. 2024. “Who Is Afraid of the Istanbul Convention? Explaining Opposition to and Support for Gender Equality.” Comparative Political Studies. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140241290205.
Rone, Julia, and Maik Fielitz. 2023. “‘Stop the Pact‘! The Foreign Policy Impact of the Far-Right Campaigning Against the Global Compact for Migration.” Geopolitics, October, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2023.2260314.
Torcal, Mariano, Toni Rodon, and María José Hierro. 2016. “Word on the Street: The Persistence of Leftist-dominated Protest in Europe.” West European Politics 39 (2): 326–50. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2015.1068525.