Class 11: Individuals in the far right

Radicalisation

Opening notes

Presentation groups

July
May
June

Date	Presenters	Method
3 July:	Alexander V., Luis G., Oscar O., Mia C.	descriptive inference
10 July:	Lina S., Stephen W., Philomena B., Aarón Z.	ethnography
17 July:	Corinna Z., Eva M., and Rostislav N.	TBD
24 July:	Sebastian K., Thomas R., Emilia Z., Florian P.	TBD
24 July:	Lorenz F., Daniel B., Medina H.	quant. text analysis

Presentations line-up
Date	Presenters	Method
15 May:	Idil M., Zeynep P., Liesl W., Selin K., Chiara W.	logistic regression
22 May:	Gabriel W., Lina M., Florian S., Julian B.	discourse analysis
29 May:	NO CLASS MEETING

Date	Presenters	Method
5 June:	Rasmus B., Andre D., Josefine E., Ioanna L., Santiago C.	surveys
12 June:	Omar B., Lela E., Niclas W.	network analysis
19 June:	NO CLASS MEETING
26 June:	Colombe I., Konstantin S., Jakob W., Veronika L.	ethnography
26 June:	Maksim K., Felix S., Jon L.D., Damir S., Korbinian M.	case study

Course evaluations

course evaluations are available
scoring is appreciated
comments can be very helpful, for example:

Rachel Berry Rachel Berry Quote GIFfrom Rachel Berry GIFs

how is the course website? any suggested improvements?
what did you like and dislike about the class slides?
what did you like and dislike about class meetings?
did you watch the recorded lectures? (evaluations are anonymous, so you can be totally honest) how were they?
are course assignments clear? (e.g., add another report example?)

Radicalisation - core concepts

(de)radicalisation
(dis)engagement
models of radicalisation (esp. in government work)
pathways of radicalisation (Jensen, Seate, and James 2018)

Thats Rad Sarcastic GIFfrom Thats Rad GIFs

Radicalisation - core concepts

radicalisation (change in belief): process of connecting with and adopting radical or extremist ideology—does not necessarily result in violence or ‘engaging’ in extremist activity
engagement (change in behaviour): (in this context) process or act of performing radical or extremist activity, especially violence
deradicalisation (change in belief): “process by which an individual is diverted from an extremist ideology, eventually rejecting an extremist ideology and moderating their beliefs” (Gaudette, Scrivens, and Venkatesh 2022, 1)
disengagement (change in behaviour): “process by which an individual decides to leave their associated extremist group or movement in order to reintegrate into society” (Ibid.)

Models of radicalisation (esp. in government work)

Commonalities in radicalisation models

recognition of the processual nature of radicalisation
- vulnerabilities and background factors
- cognitive opening
  - recognition of some conditions as wrong
  - framing those conditions as unjust and justifying violent remedies
  - singling out specific responsibilities; demonisation of other
- action

implicitly: most in society can become vulnerable to radicalisation

prevent and counter (P/CVE)

Commonalities in radicalisation models

Bjørgo (2005) identifies…

ideological activists, motivated by ideas; drifters and fellow travelers, seeking friendship; and frustrated youth with criminal records

key finding: radicals tend to have normal personalities (pathologising is futile)

Push/pull radicalisation factors

external

Push/pull radicalisation factors

relational

external

Push/pull radicalisation factors

identity

relational

external

Push/pull radicalisation factors

personal

identity

relational

external

Push/pull radicalisation factors

psychological

personal

identity

relational

external

Push/pull radicalisation factors - psychological

psychological

cognitive, emotional frailties that threaten senses of self, identity, and belonging
- cognitive, emotional benefits (perceived to be) received by adopting radical beliefs/actions
crises/breakdowns – moments of acute vulnerability

Push/pull radicalisation factors

psychological

personal

identity

relational

external

Push/pull radicalisation factors - personal

personal

factors or events that undermine the pillars of stability people depend on
personal background factors: e.g., issues in adolescence, lack of stable social relations development
- sense of adventure/excitement
challenging event: e.g., loss of close interpersonal relationship(s), job loss, inability to provide for basic needs
- possibility to gain material rewards

Push/pull radicalisation factors

psychological

personal

identity

relational

external

Push/pull radicalisation factors - identity

identity

social isolation (either self-imposed or imposed by external conditions)
- possibility to join community
- possibility of ‘acquired identity’
senses of exclusion, discrimination, relative deprivation due to characteristics or beliefs
- gaining senses of belonging and solidarity

Push/pull radicalisation factors

psychological

personal

identity

relational

external

Push/pull radicalisation factors - relational

relational

alienation from family, friends (close interpersonal network)
- contacts, possibility of building relations in radical milieu
history of conflict, radical activism
- recruitment by leaders/members of radical milieu
- radicalising messages about group norms (beliefs, values, actions that are prototypical)
community crisis: collective feelings of trouble, danger

Push/pull radicalisation factors

psychological

personal

identity

relational

external

Push/pull radicalisation factors - external

external

polarisation in societies
loss of trust in political institutions
provocative action from state or social actors
prevalent extremist discourse(s)
accessibility of radical/extremist activism
many other possiblities

Push/pull radicalisation factors

psychological

personal

identity

relational

external

Push/pull radicalisation factors

See further in (e.g.) Campelo et al. (2018), della Porta (2018), Fahey and Simi (2019), Jensen, Seate, and James (2018), Vergani et al. (2018)

psychological

personal

identity

relational

external

Radicalisation pathways (Fahey and Simi 2019)

RQ: What are the pathways to ideologically motivated violence among a sample of North American-based right-wing extremists, largely white supremacists and neo-Nazis?
data: 35 life history interviews (corrobated with open-source information)
method: (crisp-set) qualitative comparative analysis (QCA)
- Outcome (dependent variable): use of (planned/spontaneous) extremist violence

Radicalisation pathways - factors (Fahey and Simi 2019)

prior property offences (part of cognitive opening)

truancy (weakening social stability)

delinquent peers (relational influences)

family involvement in extremism (relational influences)

lower/working class childhood (possible manifestations in psychological, personal, identity factors)

academic failure (personal crises)

But…

Radicalisation pathways - factors (Fahey and Simi 2019)

prior property offences (part of cognitive opening)
truancy (weakening social stability)
delinquent peers (relational influences)
family involvement in extremism (relational influences)
lower/working class childhood (possible manifestations in psychological, personal, identity factors)
academic failure (personal crises)

But…

No support was garnered for the identification of distinct pathways of homogeneous risk factors among either sample of violent offenders.

Poll: tendencies of radicalisation

A QR code for the survey.

Take the survey at https://forms.gle/nqYxotpf7phB8fYP8

Is there a difference between how individuals radicalise depending on ideology?
Are younger people more open/vulnerable to radicalisation?

Has social media changed radicalisation processes?
Can government programmes effectively deradicalise individuals?
Should there be incentives for radical/extreme individuals to participate in deradicalisation programmes?

md`## Poll results (Respondents: ${respondentCount})`

import { liveGoogleSheet } from "@jimjamslam/live-google-sheet";
import { aq, op } from "@uwdata/arquero";

// UPDATE THE LINK FOR A NEW POLL
surveyResults = liveGoogleSheet(
  "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/" +
    "2PACX-1vR_GvgDzmO4AX9VAGayfBTMlR9W2Z6bF-IYePcQSuLN8m5M1vfjTIEY0bJu38Ql2MMzIy9mJSUpGsWu/" +
    "pub?gid=1855864627&single=true&output=csv",
  10000, 1, 7); // adjust the last number to select all relevant columns 

respondentCount = surveyResults.length;

Is there a difference between how individuals radicalise depending on ideology?

differenceCounts = aq.from(surveyResults)
  .select("difference")
  .groupby("difference")
  .count()
  .derive({ measure: d => "" })

// Calculate the maximum count from your dataset
difference_maxCountRE = Math.max(...differenceCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));

plot_difference = Plot.plot({
  marks: [
    Plot.barY(differenceCounts, {
      x: "difference",
      y: "count",
      fill: "difference",
      stroke: "black",
      strokeWidth: 1
    }),
    Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke: "#ffffff99" })
  ],
  color: {
    domain: [
      "Yes",
      "No",
      "Maybe"
    ],
    range: [
      "forestgreen",
      "darkred",
      "goldenrod"
    ]
  },
  marginBottom: 80,
  x: { label: "", tickSize: 2, tickRotate: -1, padding: 0.2,
    domain: ["Yes", "No", "Maybe"]
  },  
  y: {
    label: "",
    tickSize: 10,
    tickFormat: d => d,
    tickValues: Array.from(
      new Set(differenceCounts.objects().map(d => d.count))
    ).sort((a, b) => a - b),
    domain: [0, difference_maxCountRE]
  },
  facet: { data: differenceCounts, x: "measure", label: "" },
  marginLeft: 60,
  style: {
    width: 1600,
    height: 500,
    fontSize: 40,
  },
});

Poll: youth and social media

Younger more vulnerable to radicalisation?

youngerCounts = aq.from(surveyResults)
  .select("younger")
  .groupby("younger")
  .count()
  .derive({ measure: d => "" })

// Calculate the maximum count from your dataset
younger_maxCountRE = Math.max(...youngerCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));

plot_younger = Plot.plot({
  marks: [
    Plot.barY(youngerCounts, {
      x: "younger",
      y: "count",
      fill: "younger",
      stroke: "black",
      strokeWidth: 1
    }),
    Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke: "#ffffff99" })
  ],
  color: {
    domain: [
      "Yes",
      "No",
      "Maybe"
    ],
    range: [
      "forestgreen",
      "darkred",
      "goldenrod"
    ]
  },
  marginBottom: 80,
  x: { label: "", tickSize: 2, tickRotate: -1, padding: 0.2,
    domain: ["Yes", "No", "Maybe"]
  },  
  y: {
    label: "",
    tickSize: 10,
    tickFormat: d => d,
    tickValues: Array.from(
      new Set(youngerCounts.objects().map(d => d.count))
    ).sort((a, b) => a - b),
    domain: [0, younger_maxCountRE]
  },
  facet: { data: youngerCounts, x: "measure", label: "" },
  marginLeft: 60,
  style: {
    width: 1600,
    height: 500,
    fontSize: 40,
  },
});

Social media changing radicalisation?

social_mediaCounts = aq.from(surveyResults)
  .select("social_media")
  .groupby("social_media")
  .count()
  .derive({ measure: d => "" })

// Calculate the maximum count from your dataset
social_media_maxCountRE = Math.max(...social_mediaCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));

plot_social_media = Plot.plot({
  marks: [
    Plot.barY(social_mediaCounts, {
      x: "social_media",
      y: "count",
      fill: "social_media",
      stroke: "black",
      strokeWidth: 1
    }),
    Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke: "#ffffff99" })
  ],
  color: {
    domain: [
      "Yes",
      "No",
      "Maybe"
    ],
    range: [
      "forestgreen",
      "darkred",
      "goldenrod"
    ]
  },
  marginBottom: 80,
  x: { label: "", tickSize: 2, tickRotate: -1, padding: 0.2,
    domain: ["Yes", "No", "Maybe"]
  },  
  y: {
    label: "",
    tickSize: 10,
    tickFormat: d => d,
    tickValues: Array.from(
      new Set(social_mediaCounts.objects().map(d => d.count))
    ).sort((a, b) => a - b),
    domain: [0, social_media_maxCountRE]
  },
  facet: { data: social_mediaCounts, x: "measure", label: "" },
  marginLeft: 60,
  style: {
    width: 1600,
    height: 500,
    fontSize: 40,
  },
});

Study snapshot: youth radicalisation

Schils and Verhage (2017)
12 Belgian extremists interviewed:
- 7 from left-wing scene
- 4 from right-wing scene
- 1 religious extremist
futility of bans? (p14): one can strive to ban… groups, as long as the demand for these groups remains, this will lead to the constant development of new groups. The same goes for the websites run by these groups.

despite rise of digital communication and mobilisation, sub-culture-based recruitment remains (arguably chiefly) important for far-right movements
policy remedies (p14):
1. address breeding ground
2. alternatives for the demand: movements accessible and responsive to youth grievances

Dr. Erin Saltman talk (until 8.00 mark)

Poll: intervention, incentives, emphasis

Gov. programmes effective intervention?

government_programmesCounts = aq.from(surveyResults)
  .select("government_programmes")
  .groupby("government_programmes")
  .count()
  .derive({ measure: d => "" })

// Calculate the maximum count from your dataset
government_programmes_maxCountRE = Math.max(...government_programmesCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));

plot_government_programmes = Plot.plot({
  marks: [
    Plot.barY(government_programmesCounts, {
      x: "government_programmes",
      y: "count",
      fill: "government_programmes",
      stroke: "black",
      strokeWidth: 1
    }),
    Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke: "#ffffff99" })
  ],
  color: {
    domain: [
      "Yes",
      "No",
      "Maybe"
    ],
    range: [
      "forestgreen",
      "darkred",
      "goldenrod"
    ]
  },
  marginBottom: 80,
  x: { label: "", tickSize: 2, tickRotate: -1, padding: 0.2,
    domain: ["Yes", "No", "Maybe"]
  },  
  y: {
    label: "",
    tickSize: 10,
    tickFormat: d => d,
    tickValues: Array.from(
      new Set(government_programmesCounts.objects().map(d => d.count))
    ).sort((a, b) => a - b),
    domain: [0, government_programmes_maxCountRE]
  },
  facet: { data: government_programmesCounts, x: "measure", label: "" },
  marginLeft: 60,
  style: {
    width: 1600,
    height: 500,
    fontSize: 40,
  },
});

Incentivise participation in programmes?

incentivesCounts = aq.from(surveyResults)
  .select("incentives")
  .groupby("incentives")
  .count()
  .derive({ measure: d => "" })

// Calculate the maximum count from your dataset
incentives_maxCountRE = Math.max(...incentivesCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));

plot_incentives = Plot.plot({
  marks: [
    Plot.barY(incentivesCounts, {
      x: "incentives",
      y: "count",
      fill: "incentives",
      stroke: "black",
      strokeWidth: 1
    }),
    Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke: "#ffffff99" })
  ],
  color: {
    domain: [
      "Yes",
      "No",
      "Maybe"
    ],
    range: [
      "forestgreen",
      "darkred",
      "goldenrod"
    ]
  },
  marginBottom: 80,
  x: { label: "", tickSize: 2, tickRotate: -1, padding: 0.2,
    domain: ["Yes", "No", "Maybe"]
  },  
  y: {
    label: "",
    tickSize: 10,
    tickFormat: d => d,
    tickValues: Array.from(
      new Set(incentivesCounts.objects().map(d => d.count))
    ).sort((a, b) => a - b),
    domain: [0, incentives_maxCountRE]
  },
  facet: { data: incentivesCounts, x: "measure", label: "" },
  marginLeft: 60,
  style: {
    width: 1600,
    height: 500,
    fontSize: 40,
  },
});

Emphasise criminal or treatment responses?

emphasisCounts = aq.from(surveyResults)
  .select("emphasis")
  .groupby("emphasis")
  .count()
  .derive({ measure: d => "" })

// Calculate the maximum count from your dataset
emphasis_maxCountRE = Math.max(...emphasisCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));

plot_emphasis = Plot.plot({
  marks: [
    Plot.barY(emphasisCounts, {
      x: "emphasis",
      y: "count",
      fill: "emphasis",
      stroke: "black",
      strokeWidth: 1
    }),
    Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke: "#ffffff99" })
  ],
  color: {
    domain: [
      "criminal",
      "treatment"
    ],
    range: [
      "darkorange",
      "cadetblue"
    ]
  },
  marginBottom: 80,
  x: { label: "", tickSize: 2, tickRotate: -1, padding: 0.2,
    domain: ["criminal", "treatment"]
  },  
  y: {
    label: "",
    tickSize: 10,
    tickFormat: d => d,
    tickValues: Array.from(
      new Set(emphasisCounts.objects().map(d => d.count))
    ).sort((a, b) => a - b),
    domain: [0, emphasis_maxCountRE]
  },
  facet: { data: emphasisCounts, x: "measure", label: "" },
  marginLeft: 60,
  style: {
    width: 1600,
    height: 500,
    fontSize: 40,
  },
});

Why radicalisation fails

Why Radicalization Fails: Barriers to Mass Casualty Terrorism (Simi and Windisch 2020)
prevention
resilience building
- e.g., Demokratie Leben!

Fail Memefrom Fail Memes

Barriers to terrorism (Simi and Windisch 2020)

RQs (p834):

What limits the larger pool of extremists who embrace an ideology but do not translate these beliefs into action? What types of conditions serve as barriers in the action pathway process? And, finally, how can the identification of these barriers help inform counterterrorism measures?

concepts:
- action pathways: process of engaging in terrorism or violent extremist actions
- barriers: maybe but not necessarily segues to disengagement and/or deradicalisation
- MCV: mass casualty violence

Barriers to terrorism (Simi and Windisch 2020)

RQs (p834):

What limits the larger pool of extremists who embrace an ideology but do not translate these beliefs into action? What types of conditions serve as barriers in the action pathway process? And, finally, how can the identification of these barriers help inform counterterrorism measures?

34 former U.S. white supremacist extremists; life history interviews, conducted between 2012-2016
- exemplary data description - take note for paper- and thesis-writing!

Methodological issue: ‘negative cases’

Simi and Windisch (2020, 833–34):

our sample represents an important step forward in terms of focusing on “negative cases.”

(for methods nerds, further on ‘negative cases’: Emigh 1997; Varshney 2001; Mahoney and Goertz 2004)

Barriers to terrorism - findings (Simi and Windisch 2020)

mass casualty violence as counterproductive;
preference toward interpersonal violence;
changes in focus/availability;
internal organizational conflict; and
moral apprehension

bars

expanding on the findings (Simi and Windisch 2020)

p.839 (preference toward interpersonal violence):

They described interpersonal violence as a masculine endeavor, whereas, shooting or bombing people from a distance was considered dishonorable and unfair. As the following participants explained, compared to street fighting, using a gun expresses a lack of masculinity and physical prowess.

p.841 (changes in focus/availability):

The presence of personal obligations can be thought of as changes in “biographical availability” such as employment, marriage, and children. In all, thirteen participants (37 per cent) were identified as experiencing a change in focus and availability, which constrained the likelihood of MCV and shifted their attention toward personal obligations (e.g., children, work).

p.842 (internal organizational conflict):

A common reason for entering extremism is the appeal of joining a higher moral cause predicated on virtues such as loyalty, kinship, and purity.

Radicalisation prevention

Rune Ellefsen & Sveinung Sandberg (2022): Everyday Prevention of Radicalization: The Impacts of Family, Peer, and Police Intervention, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism.

(de)radicalisation actors in the example of Norway:
- family
- peers
- police/security

Radicalisation prevention

Rune Ellefsen & Sveinung Sandberg (2022): Everyday Prevention of Radicalization: The Impacts of Family, Peer, and Police Intervention, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism.

(de)radicalisation actors in the example of Norway:
- family
- peers
- police/security
- what about other actors?

Radicalisation prevention

Rune Ellefsen & Sveinung Sandberg (2022): Everyday Prevention of Radicalization: The Impacts of Family, Peer, and Police Intervention, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism.

(de)radicalisation actors in the example of Norway:
- family
- peers
- police/security
- what about other actors?
  - social workers
  - faith leaders
  - NGOs and community organisations

Radicalisation prevention - D.Rad programme

are you convinced?

Resilience building, e.g., Demokratie Leben!

Any questions, concerns, feedback for this class?

Anonymous feedback here: https://forms.gle/pisUmtmWdE13zMD58

Alternatively, send me an email: m.zeller@lmu.de

pagedown::chrome_print(file.path("..", "docs/slides", "slides_11.html"))

References

Campelo, Nicolas, Alice Oppetit, Françoise Neau, David Cohen, and Guillaume Bronsard. 2018. “Who Are the European Youths Willing to Engage in Radicalisation? A Multidisciplinary Review of Their Psychological and Social Profiles.” European Psychiatry 52: 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eurpsy.2018.03.001.

della Porta, Donatella. 2018. “Radicalization: A Relational Perspective.” Annual Review of Sociology 21: 461–74. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-042716.

Emigh, Rebecca Jean. 1997. “The Power of Negative Thinking: The Use of Negative Case Methodology in the Development of Sociological Theory.” Theory and Society 26 (5): 649–84.

Fahey, Susan, and Pete Simi. 2019. “Pathways to Violent Extremism: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of the US Far-Right.” Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict 12 (1): 42–66. https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2018.1551558.

Gaudette, Tiana, Ryan Scrivens, and Vivek Venkatesh. 2022. “Disengaged but Still Radical? Pathways Out of Violent Right-Wing Extremism.” Terrorism and Political Violence 00 (00): 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2022.2082288.

Jensen, Michael A, Anita Atwell Seate, and Patrick A James. 2018. “Radicalization to Violence: A Pathway Approach to Studying Extremism Radicalization to Violence.” Terrorism and Political Violence, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2018.1442330.

Mahoney, James, and Gary Goertz. 2004. “The Possibility Principle: Choosing Negative Cases in Comparative Research.” American Political Science Review 98 (4): 653–69. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055404041401.

Schils, Nele, and Antoinette Verhage. 2017. “Understanding How and Why Young People Enter Radical or Violent Extremist Groups.” International Journal of Conflict and Violence 11: 1–17. https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/ijcv.473.

Simi, Pete, and Steven Windisch. 2020. “Why Radicalization Fails: Barriers to Mass Casualty Terrorism.” Terrorism and Political Violence 32 (4): 831–50. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2017.1409212.

Varshney, Ashutosh. 2001. “Ethnic Conflict and Civil Society: India and Beyond.” World Politics 53 (3): 362–98.

Vergani, Matteo, Muhammad Iqbal, Ekin Ilbahar, and Greg Barton. 2018. “The Three Ps of Radicalization: Push , Pull and Personal. A Systematic Scoping Review of the Scientific Evidence about Radicalization Into Violent Extremism.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 0 (0): 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2018.1505686.