a pattern of violence on the part of an armed organization (state force, rebel group, or militia) as the relatively stable and recognizable configuration of violence in which it engages. This configuration consists of …
beatings, stabbings, sexual violence, homicide, etc.
violent repertoires used by far-right actors vary
several far-right groups we have discussed are associated with low-level, low intensity violence (e.g., beatings and non-lethal assault), such as CasaPound Italia
Patterns of far-right violence similar or different to other extremist violence?
Generally, are ‘lone actors’ or violent far-right groups the greater societal threat?
‘regular’ violent crime: just like other individual violent offenders; domestic terrorism: violence to terrift, advance movement goals. State authorities’ understanding?: crime or terrorism?
Groups, parties responsible for members’ violent crimes?
import { liveGoogleSheet } from"@jimjamslam/live-google-sheet";import { aq, op } from"@uwdata/arquero";// UPDATE THE LINK FOR A NEW POLLsurveyResults =liveGoogleSheet("https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/"+"2PACX-1vRlp4g_pBSPhIHzVRjuA-NXNER-nycqjbSx6GDelAHtjzLQoW-yp-gOAOmudiqxTtWyLx9GbqobjL4W/"+"pub?gid=473771883&single=true&output=csv",10000,1,6);// adjust the last number to select all relevant columns respondentCount = surveyResults.length;
Are patterns of far-right violence largely similar to other extremist violence or rather different?
patternsCounts = aq.from(surveyResults).select("patterns").groupby("patterns").count().derive({ measure: d =>"" })// Calculate the maximum count from your datasetpatterns_maxCountRE =Math.max(...patternsCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));plot_patterns = Plot.plot({marks: [ Plot.barY(patternsCounts, {x:"patterns",y:"count",fill:"patterns",stroke:"black",strokeWidth:1 }), Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke:"#ffffff99" }) ],color: {domain: ["similar","different" ],range: ["darkorange","cadetblue" ] },marginBottom:80,x: { label:"",tickSize:2,tickRotate:-1,padding:0.2,domain: ["similar","different"] },y: {label:"",tickSize:10,tickFormat: d => d,tickValues:Array.from(newSet(patternsCounts.objects().map(d => d.count)) ).sort((a, b) => a - b),domain: [0, patterns_maxCountRE] },facet: { data: patternsCounts,x:"measure",label:"" },marginLeft:60,style: {width:1600,height:500,fontSize:40, },});
Poll: threat and response
greater societal threat?
threatCounts = aq.from(surveyResults).select("threat").groupby("threat").count().derive({ measure: d =>"" })// Calculate the maximum count from your datasetthreat_maxCountRE =Math.max(...threatCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));plot_threat = Plot.plot({marks: [ Plot.barY(threatCounts, {x:"threat",y:"count",fill:"threat",stroke:"black",strokeWidth:1 }), Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke:"#ffffff99" }) ],color: {domain: ["lone actors","violent groups","other" ],range: ["teal","indigo","violet" ] },marginBottom:140,x: { label:"",tickSize:2,tickRotate:-30,padding:0.2,domain: ["lone actors","violent groups","other"] },y: {label:"",tickSize:10,tickFormat: d => d,tickValues:Array.from(newSet(threatCounts.objects().map(d => d.count)) ).sort((a, b) => a - b),domain: [0, threat_maxCountRE] },facet: { data: threatCounts,x:"measure",label:"" },marginLeft:70,style: {width:1600,height:500,fontSize:40, },});
response: crime or terrorism?
responseCounts = aq.from(surveyResults).select("response").groupby("response").count().derive({ measure: d =>"" })// Calculate the maximum count from your datasetresponse_maxCountRE =Math.max(...responseCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));plot_response = Plot.plot({marks: [ Plot.barY(responseCounts, {x:"response",y:"count",fill:"response",stroke:"black",strokeWidth:1 }), Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke:"#ffffff99" }) ],color: {domain: ["violent crime","domestic terrorism","other" ],range: ["darkorange","red","violet", ] },marginBottom:140,x: { label:"",tickSize:2,tickRotate:-30,padding:0.2,domain: ["violent crime","domestic terrorism","other"] },y: {label:"",tickSize:10,tickFormat: d => d,tickValues:Array.from(newSet(responseCounts.objects().map(d => d.count)) ).sort((a, b) => a - b),domain: [0, response_maxCountRE] },facet: { data: responseCounts,x:"measure",label:"" },marginLeft:70,style: {width:1600,height:500,fontSize:40, },});
Contextual causes of far-right violence
country-level causes of right-wing terrorism (Ravndal 2018)
development of right-wing terrorism within a country (Germany) (Manthe 2021)
is right-wing terrorism ‘still’ a within-country phenomenon?
The two ‘causal recipes’ both appear “to fuel hostility, polarisation and violence”
North European pattern (Diversity* ~Support* Repression)
“a predominantly pro-immigration elite perceived as hostile towards people with anti-immigration concerns might be exploited by the extreme right to mobilise new followers and to motivate terrorism and violence”
South European pattern (Hardship* Legacies* Aggression)
both recipes contain elements of grievances and opportunities
Ravndal: high polarisation might be necessary for extensive RTV, but the data do not offer firm conclusions about this.
Ravndal (2018, 862) - conclusions: ‘paradox of tolerance’
By implication, a potentially effective cure for RTV could be to limit immigration and be more accepting towards radical right actors and opinions. However, considering the inherently intolerant policies these actors seek to implement, this cure comes with a bitter aftertaste from a liberal democratic perspective. This liberal dilemma has no easy solution…
calculated action of groups or individuals… who, with attempted or actual severe violence against people or property, conspiratorially pursue at least two of the following goals:
to create a climate of fear in the general/certain populations;
to attract public attention;
to influence the actions of states, leaders, and/or to provoke;
to destabilize political and social order (which can include challenging the state and its policies); and
to defend political and social order (vigilantism).
Verfassungsschutz: “persistent fight for political goals enforced by attacks on life, limb and property of others particularly through severe criminal acts as named in 129a Strafgesetzbuch or through other acts of violence meant to prepare these criminal acts.”
scholarship definition: terrorism aims to send a message in order to “achieve an effect on others besides the direct victim or target of the violence.” (Bjørgo)
Causes of (relatively) peaceful period in postwar era until the 1970s:
criminally prosecuting far-right offenders and banning far-right groups
lack of strong de-nazification and Vergangenheitsbewältigung (‘dealing with the past’) means ‘less impetus for violence’
several members of Adenauer’s governments had been in NS regime, e.g.,
Hans Globke, Chief of Staff for the West German Chancellery, helped draft Nuremberg Laws and worked closely with Adolf Eichmann to administer parts of the Holocaust;
Interior Minister Gerhard Schröder, longtime Nazi party member;
minister for refugees Theodor Oberländer, served in SS battalion implicated in war crimes; and
Bundesnachtichtendienst president Reinhard Gehlen, NS intelligence officer
NPD creation in 1964 led the far-right scene to transfer expectations of success through parliamentary victory; also led to strategic restraint with regards to openly violent activities.
how do these explanations relate to the movements analytical concepts we have discussed?
Manthe (2021) - phases of 1970s RW terrorist activity
early 1970s: (larger) group emergence
mid-1970s: smaller groupings, radicalisation
late 1970s: escalation in violence
participation of German RW extremists in Lebanese civil war, later in Yugoslav wars
‘lone attacker’ theory re-opened for investigation in 2014
Assassination of Shlomo Lewin & Frida Poeschke (19.12.1980)
attacker: Uwe Behrendt (member of WSG Hoffmann)
An example of the curious relationship of opposed movements
after the RAF had killed the Generalbundesanwalt (Public Prosecutor General) Siegfried Buback on April 7, 1977, the neo-Nazi magazine Wille und Weg (Will and Way) celebrated the assassination, calling it a “relieving act.” Statements by right-wing terrorists, such as Christine Hewicker, indicate that they admired the RAF for its determinedness. However, other activists at the same time deeply objected to the group” (Manthe 2021, 61)
(use and misuse of the ‘horseshoe theory’?)
Poll: responsibility and anti-fascism
groups, parties responsible for members’ crimes?
responsibleCounts = aq.from(surveyResults).select("responsible").groupby("responsible").count().derive({ measure: d =>"" })// Calculate the maximum count from your datasetresponsible_maxCountRE =Math.max(...responsibleCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));plot_responsible = Plot.plot({marks: [ Plot.barY(responsibleCounts, {x:"responsible",y:"count",fill:"responsible",stroke:"black",strokeWidth:1 }), Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke:"#ffffff99" }) ],color: {domain: ["Yes","No","Maybe" ],range: ["forestgreen","darkred","goldenrod" ] },marginBottom:80,x: { label:"",tickSize:2,tickRotate:-1,padding:0.2,domain: ["Yes","No","Maybe"] },y: {label:"",tickSize:10,tickFormat: d => d,tickValues:Array.from(newSet(responsibleCounts.objects().map(d => d.count)) ).sort((a, b) => a - b),domain: [0, responsible_maxCountRE] },facet: { data: responsibleCounts,x:"measure",label:"" },marginLeft:60,style: {width:1600,height:500,fontSize:40, },});
anti-fascist violence sometimes legitimate?
antifascismCounts = aq.from(surveyResults).select("antifascism").groupby("antifascism").count().derive({ measure: d =>"" })// Calculate the maximum count from your datasetantifascism_maxCountRE =Math.max(...antifascismCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));plot_antifascism = Plot.plot({marks: [ Plot.barY(antifascismCounts, {x:"antifascism",y:"count",fill:"antifascism",stroke:"black",strokeWidth:1 }), Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke:"#ffffff99" }) ],color: {domain: ["Yes","No","Maybe" ],range: ["forestgreen","darkred","goldenrod" ] },marginBottom:80,x: { label:"",tickSize:2,tickRotate:-1,padding:0.2,domain: ["Yes","No","Maybe"] },y: {label:"",tickSize:10,tickFormat: d => d,tickValues:Array.from(newSet(antifascismCounts.objects().map(d => d.count)) ).sort((a, b) => a - b),domain: [0, antifascism_maxCountRE] },facet: { data: antifascismCounts,x:"measure",label:"" },marginLeft:60,style: {width:1600,height:500,fontSize:40, },});
recognises state and non-state armed groups bear responsibility for acts of sexual violence committed by their members ([armed] group responsibility)
Groups responsible for members: contra arguments
Venice Commission of the Council of Europe provided advisory guidelines about the regulation of political parties that stated a “political party as a whole cannot be held responsible for the individual behaviour of its members not authorised by the party within the framework of political/public and party activities. (European Commission 2003)
European Commission. 2003. “Opinion on the Proposed Amendment to the Law on Parties and Other Socio-Political Organisations of the Republic of Moldova Adopted by the Venice Commission at Its 54th Plenary Session (Venice, 14-15 March 2003).”Venice Commission of the Council of Europe. https://www.coe.int/en/web/venice-commission/-/cdl-ad-2003-008-e?p_l_back_url=%2Fen%2Fweb%2Fvenice-commission%2Fdocuments%3FYears%3D277145199%26Languages%3D274802870%26Series%3D274804643.
Fielitz, Maik, Vasiliki Tsagkroni, and Andreas Dafnos. 2020. “The Banning of Golden Dawn.” In CARR Organisation Research Unit Year in Review Report 2020, 27–29. Centre for the Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR).
Gutiérrez-Sanín, Francisco, and Elisabeth Jean Wood. 2017. “What Should We Mean by ‘Pattern of Political Violence’? Repertoire, Targeting, Frequency, and Technique.”Perspectives on Politics 15 (1): 20–41. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592716004114.
Kotonen, Tommi. 2021. “Proscribing the Nordic Resistance Movement in Finland: Analyzing the Process and Its Outcome.”Journal for Deradicalization 29 (Winter): 177–204.
Manthe, Barbara. 2021. “On the Pathway to Violence: West German Right-Wing Terrorism in the 1970s.”Terrorism and Political Violence 33 (1): 49–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2018.1520701.
Ravndal, Jacob Aasland. 2018. “Explaining Right-Wing Terrorism and Violence in Western Europe: Grievances, Opportunities and Polarisation.”European Journal of Political Research 57 (4): 845–66. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12254.
Zeller, Michael C, and Pasquale Noschese. 2025. “Targeting Taxonomy and Patterns of Political Violence in Stable Societies: Evidence from the Far Right in Italy.”Terrorism and Political Violence 0 (0): 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2025.2528059.
Zeller, Michael C, and Michael Vaughan. 2024. “Proscribing Right-Wing Extremist Organizations in Europe: Variations, Trends, and Prospects.”Terrorism and Political Violence 36 (8): 985–1007. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2023.2240446.