First…

First task…

Read the syllabus!

• We have a shiny new (developing) website for the course
  • https://michaelzeller.de/course-pv/
• Before our next meeting, your task is to peruse the website
  • especially the Syllabus and Readings pages.

Defining political violence

• Broadly: the use of force by a person or group with a political motivation/purpose

Connection to Prof. Bolleyer’s lecture

• This course is one of the Grundkurse for Prof. Bolleyer’s Einführung in das politische System Deutschlands
• This course is a detailed investigation of a related topic—not a tutorial on the material in Prof. Bolleyer’s lecture
  • So—as should go without saying—for both the lecture and GK: read and attend classes

Narrowing the field

• there’s a lot of political violence around…
• In this course, we will focus on
  • non-state
  • organised groups
  • in Germany and other (liberal) democratic contexts (with some exceptions)
• The course is arranged to cover a diverse array of cases within these parameters (we’ll discuss ‘assigned cases’ momentarily)

Aims

• acquire both substantive knowledge of aspects of political violence and critical knowledge to evaluate research thereof
• gain familiarity with methodological approaches to studying political violence
• (further) develop the capacity to…
  • assess episodes and broader cycles of political violence, especially by identifying underlying factors and comparing across contexts
  • critically evaluate reporting, research, and policy on political violence, especially by evaluating the data and methods used

Notes of caution

Accounts of political violence can be alarming, disturbing, horrifying… — so some ground rules are necessary

• graphic (i.e., vivid, shocking) images and even accounts will be avoided in course materials. Exceptions only in cases of necessity and with forewarning
• any sympathies (towards any contenders) should be restrained in favour of sober consideration of cases and topics
• normative considerations are not the focus of this course. It is what, who, when, where, how, why — not so much should
  • generally, the course materials do not challenge the legitimacy of the state’s monopoly of violence
• with concerns and questions, come talk with me

Assessment: within this course

Course assessment - Participation

• No examination in this course, BUT there is in ‘Einführung Politisches System der BRD’. There, you respond to an essay question from this course.
  • Exam on 3 February (Monday) at 14.00
  • 90-minutes written exam: response to 3 of 5 short-answer prompts from Prof. Bolleyer’s lecture and to 1 of 3 essay prompts from this course
• attend class and actively participate
  • do required reading

Course assessment - Presentation

• Presentation
  • short (max. 20 minutes) group (2-4 students) talk on a method for studying political violence
  • A method is a system of data collection and analysis
    1. introduce method,
    2. explain its utility for studying political violence,
    3. [the crucial part] and discuss one applied example

Essay (Hausarbeit): Data report

• data report on a far-right phenomenon (e.g., voters, a party, protests, violence)
  • why a dataset? Helpful preparation for thinking about validity, reliability, etc. → relevant for quant. and qual.
• gather and present data, generate analytical insights
• 2000-3000 words (excluding citations)
• 17 January: short synopsis due. 7 March: full, final report due.
• consider working with data visualisation and analysis software!
• A rule: no drawing any data from or citing Statista or other data curation services.

submit all assignments by email: m.zeller@lmu.de

For the paper, and writing in general…

Patriotta, G. (2017). Crafting papers for publication: Novelty and convention in academic writing. Journal of Management Studies, 54(5), 747-759.

Further: tools of the research trade…

• qualitative data management: e.g., MAXQDA, ATLAS.ti
• quantitative (and qual.) data analysis software: e.g., R (and R Studio), Stata
• typesetting programmes: LaTeX (through TexStudio) and RMarkdown

Typical class meeting

• Opening question(s)/discussion point(s)
  • e.g., theoretical dilemma, typology forming, news item
• Summarising lecture on theory/findings related to week’s topic
  • discussion points
• Short video relevant to topic
• Discussing the reading(s)
  • highlighting important points (esp. theory, research design)
• Presentation of further research relevant to week’s topic
• Summative discussion: takeaways, new ideas, lingering questions

Throughout, we will use cases to link theory to real-world events

Colour scheme for course slides

• Why? To make concepts and important points easier to identity and review

Office hours and communication

• best to send an email
  • michael.zeller@gsi.uni-muenchen.de
  • m.zeller@lmu.de
• 11.00 - 12.00 on Wednesdays at GSI (Oettingenstr. 67) - Room H105
• or by appointment
• Please use your LMU email address for communication
  • this is important for the security of the university email system

Course website

• no use of Moodle
• we have a new, shiny, developing, purpose-built website:: https://michaelzeller.de/course-pv/
  • all readings available
  • slides available before class
  • in case of class cancellation, video lecture will be available

Resources

• The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on political violence and protest events around the world: https://acleddata.com/.
• Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP): https://ucdp.uu.se/.
• ECPR Standing Group on Political Violence
• Journals:
  • Terrorism and Political Violence
  • Studies in Conflict & Terrorism
  • Perspectives on Terrorism
  • Journal for Deradicalization
  • International Journal of Conflict and Violence

About me

• tell me if you have problems understanding me
  • there’s an accent at work that I tragically cannot shake off
• Ph.D. in political science from Central European University (CEU)
  • specialisation in qualitative methods (QCA, [Bayesian] process tracing), but also quant. text analysis, network analysis
• researcher in funded projects on …
  • violent/banned far-right groups and online content moderation
  • radicalisation, violent extremism, polarisation, and resilience
• current work: militant democracy; far-right activist networks; political violence (in 1970s Northern Ireland; in contemporary Italy); paths to female leadership in Asia; protest and polarisation

About the course

About you! Poll results

causeCounts = aq.from(surveyResults)
  .select("cause")
  .groupby("cause")
  .count()
  .derive({ measure: d => "" })

// Calculate the maximum count from your dataset
cause_maxCountRE = Math.max(...causeCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));

plot_cause = Plot.plot({
  marks: [
    Plot.barY(causeCounts, {
      x: "cause",
      y: "count",
      fill: "cause",
      stroke: "black",
      strokeWidth: 1
    }),
    Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke: "#ffffff99" })
  ],
  color: {
    domain: [
      "economic inequality",
      "political repression",
      "extremist ideologies",
      "ethnic or religious tensions",
      "historical grievances",
      "other"
    ],
    range: [
      "darkred",
      "darkorange",
      "goldenrod",
      "forestgreen",
      "blue",
      "indigo"
    ]
  },
  marginBottom: 300,
  x: { label: "", tickSize: 2, tickRotate: -35, padding: 0.3,
    domain: ["economic inequality", "political repression", "extremist ideologies", "ethnic or religious tensions", "historical grievances", "other"]
  },  
  y: {
    label: "",
    tickSize: 10,
    tickFormat: d => d,
    tickValues: Array.from(
      new Set(causeCounts.objects().map(d => d.count))
    ).sort((a, b) => a - b),
    domain: [0, cause_maxCountRE]
  },
  facet: { data: causeCounts, x: "measure", label: "" },
  marginLeft: 70,
  style: {
    width: 1600,
    height: 500,
    fontSize: 40,
  },
});

About you! Poll results

Any particular politically violent group you want to learn more about?

ToLearn = aq.from(surveyResults)
  .select("learn")

ToLearn.array("learn")

About you! Student introductions

• Information about you, possibly including…
  • Expectations for this course
  • favourite joke
  • Study programme
  • favourite song
  • Country (place) of origin
  • top source for news
  • Background in education/research
  • secret skill
  • Academic/professional aspirations

About you! Poll results: biggest concern

concernCounts = aq.from(surveyResults)
  .select("concern")
  .groupby("concern")
  .count()
  .derive({ measure: d => "" })

// Calculate the maximum count from your dataset
concern_maxCountRE = Math.max(...concernCounts.objects().map(d => d.count));

plot_concern = Plot.plot({
  marks: [
    Plot.barY(concernCounts, {
      x: "concern",
      y: "count",
      fill: "concern",
      stroke: "black",
      strokeWidth: 1
    }),
    Plot.ruleY([respondentCount], { stroke: "#ffffff99" })
  ],
  color: {
    domain: [
      "Encountering content about violence",
      "Participating in class discussions",
      "Passing the Klausur",
      "Studying and discussing in English",
      "Understanding abstract concepts"
    ],
    range: [
      "darkred",
      "darkorange",
      "goldenrod",
      "forestgreen",
      "blue"
    ]
  },
  marginBottom: 400,
  x: { label: "", tickSize: 2, tickRotate: -35, padding: 0.3,
    domain: ["Encountering content about violence", "Participating in class discussions", "Passing the Klausur", "Studying and discussing in English", "Understanding abstract concepts"]
  },  
  y: {
    label: "",
    tickSize: 10,
    tickFormat: d => d,
    tickValues: Array.from(
      new Set(concernCounts.objects().map(d => d.count))
    ).sort((a, b) => a - b),
    domain: [0, concern_maxCountRE]
  },
  facet: { data: concernCounts, x: "measure", label: "" },
  marginLeft: 70,
  style: {
    width: 1600,
    height: 500,
    fontSize: 40,
  },
});

Concept formation

• concepts are the building blocks of social science research
  • a term denoting an abstract idea

Concept formation

• identifying bounds of concepts
  • See Sartori (1970)
• broadly, three types of concepts in social science

Visualising classical/radial concepts

Family resemblance: no criterion shared by all (e.g., games)

Classical vs. radial (Collier and Mahon 1993)

Patterns of Violence

borrowing a conceptual framework from armed conflict research (Gutiérrez-Sanín and Wood 2017)

a pattern of violence on the part of an armed organization (state force, rebel group, or militia) as the relatively stable and recognizable configuration of violence in which it engages. This configuration consists of …

Patterns of Violence

borrowing a conceptual framework from armed conflict research (Gutiérrez-Sanín and Wood 2017)

Patterns of Violence

borrowing a conceptual framework from armed conflict research (Gutiérrez-Sanín and Wood 2017)

• what forms of violence are used
  • beatings, stabbings, sexual violence, homicide, etc.

Patterns of Violence

borrowing a conceptual framework from armed conflict research (Gutiérrez-Sanín and Wood 2017)

Patterns of Violence

borrowing a conceptual framework from armed conflict research (Gutiérrez-Sanín and Wood 2017)

• the social groups against whom actors regularly use violent repertoires
  • an ethnic group, political opponents, LBGTI persons, militants of rival organisations, residents of certain areas, etc.

Patterns of Violence

borrowing a conceptual framework from armed conflict research (Gutiérrez-Sanín and Wood 2017)

Patterns of Violence

borrowing a conceptual framework from armed conflict research (Gutiérrez-Sanín and Wood 2017)

Patterns of Violence

borrowing a conceptual framework from armed conflict research (Gutiérrez-Sanín and Wood 2017)

• count: number of attacks deploying a repertoire against a target
• rates (common in criminology research as well):
  • incidence: incidents per member of some referent population
  • prevalence: fraction of population that suffered an incident
  • perpetration: number of incidents or persons of the targeted group per member of the group of violent attackers

Patterns of Violence

borrowing a conceptual framework from armed conflict research (Gutiérrez-Sanín and Wood 2017)

Patterns of Violence

borrowing a conceptual framework from armed conflict research (Gutiérrez-Sanín and Wood 2017)

• how the actor(s) carry out their violence
• techniques are about the tools or instruments used (e.g., clubs, knives, guns, bombs)

Patterns of Violence

Ravndal (2015) Europe RW terrorism

These are variables and types with which to consider politically violent groups — Thoughts? Can we apply this generally or is it specific to RW? Any omissions?

Examples of political violence?