Class 2: Causes, Radicalisation, Mobilisation

Causes: Setting the stage for political violence

Dr. Michael C. Zeller

Opening notes

Open Stickerfrom Open Stickers

Students’ favourite cities

Presentation groups

Remember: topic to me at least by Week 4

December
January

Presentations line-up
Date	Presenters	Method
4 Dec:		TBD
11 Dec:		TBD
18 Dec:		TBD

Presentations line-up
Date	Presenters	Method
8 Jan:		TBD
15 Jan:		TBD
22 Jan:		TBD
29 Jan:		TBD

A causal framework of political violence

three organising questions
common problems
levels of causation
- macro-level
- meso-level
- micro-level

Thats Another Reason Why Gill GIFfrom Thats Another Reason Why GIFs

Three organising questions (Crenshaw 1981)

Terrorist violence communicates a political message; its ends go beyond damaging an enemy’s material resources

why does terrorism occur?
- predictive/causal questions

how do the processes of terrorism work?
- processual/mechanistic questions

what are its social and political effects?
- descriptive and causal questions

Common problems (Crenshaw 1981)

(still applicable to significant portions of political violence and research several decades on…)

logical comparability
specification of the relationship of variables to each other
rank-ordering of variables in terms of explanatory power

3 levels of causation (Crenshaw 1981)

broad environment/contextual factors (macro-level)
circumstances and actors (meso-level)
psychological variables that encourage or inhibit (micro-level)

these levels are a useful and widely applicable analytical framework

Context (macro-level): preconditions

Any ideas what is depicted here?

Context (macro-level): preconditions

preconditions, factors setting stage for terrorism over the long run
- enabling or permissive factors provide opportunities
  - e.g., modernisation - Narodnaya Volya: operating in imperial Russia made possible by rail infrastructure
  - e.g., urbanisation - 19th century urban development of Paris by Haussman: riots and barricades less feasible, terrorism provides an alternative
  - e.g., absence of effective security measures - “necessary”
- situations that directly inspire and motivate terrorist campaigns
  - grievances: e.g., group-based discrimination, relative deprivation (Revisionist History podcast: ‘Saigon, 1965’)
  - lack of opportunity for political participation

Context (macro-level): precipitants

precipitants, specific events that immediately precede the occurrence of terrorism

a common pattern of government actions that act as catalysts for terrorism. Government use of unexpected and unusual force in response to protestor reform attempts often compels terrorist retaliation. (p384)

Examples?

Context (macro-level): precipitants

→

Context (macro-level): precipitants

precipitants, specific events that immediately precede the occurrence of terrorism

a common pattern of government actions that act as catalysts for terrorism. Government use of unexpected and unusual force in response to protestor reform attempts often compels terrorist retaliation. (p384)

Examples?

execution of 1916 Easter Rising heroes in Ireland
Protestant violence in response to Catholic civil rights movement in northern Ireland
RAF emerges after 1968 Beno Ohnesorg death by police violence

Circumstances (meso-level) (Crenshaw 1981)

terrorist behaviour as “rational”
- based on assumption that terrorist organisations have consistent sets of values, beliefs, and images of the environment. Hence, terrorism is seen collectively as a logical means
variety of goals
- from revolutionary - e.g., new state, new system
- to (essentially) conservative - e.g., preserve social group relations, power arrangements

Circumstances (meso-level): variety of goals (Crenshaw 1981)

can serve long-term strategy and/or proximate objectives
gain attention, win support
disrupt/discredit government/state
provoke reactions:
- affects public attitudes positively and negatively, creating either sympathy in a potential constituency or fear and hostility in an audience identified as the “enemy.”
- government counteraction
internal organisation functions: control, discipline, morale-building
actors’ impatience

Circumstances (meso-level) (Crenshaw 1981)

The observation that terrorism is a weapon of the weak is hackneyed but apt. (p387)

What does this mean? Do you agree?

inexpensive, simple
contrast: James C. Scott’s book (1985), Weapons of the Weak: Everyday Forms of Peasant Resistance

Psychological (micro-level): common traits (Crenshaw 1981)

two fundamental questions about the psychological basis of terrorism:

why the individual takes the first step and chooses to engage in terrorism: why join? Does the terrorist possess specific psychological predispositions, identifiable in advance, that suit them for terrorism?
- radicalisation and engagement

Why does involvement continue? What are the psychological mechanisms of group interaction?
- persistence or endurance

Psychological (micro-level): common traits (Crenshaw 1981)

ego-defensive needs
cognitive processes
socialisation

in interaction with a specific situation
different acts of terror can carry differences in psychological demands
- extremely discriminate (e.g., assassination) to broadly indiscriminate (recall patterns of violence conceptual framework)

BUT: avoid stereotyping the terrorist or oversimplifying: No single motivation or personality can be valid for all circumstances

Psychological (micro-level): normality (Crenshaw 1981)

“the outstanding common characteristic of terrorists is their normality”

The West German psychiatrist who conducted a pretrial examination of four members of the RAF concluded that they were “intelligent,” even “humorous,” and showed no symptoms of psychosis or neurosis and “no particular personality type.” (p390)

Psychological (micro-level): difficulties (Crenshaw 1981)

studying individuals engaged in terrorism presents problems:

preconditions change over time and precipitants are unpredictable
interviewing terrorists: may discover subsequent rationalisations instead of prior attitudes/motivations

Psychological (micro-level): endurance (Crenshaw 1981)

Within terrorist groups, individual/group dynamics of …

commitment,
risk,
solidarity,
loyalty,
guilt,
revenge,
isolation

discourage a change in behaviour (and at the organisational level, strategy)—even when contextual conditions change.

Politically violent groups connected to Germany

roster of organisations
discussion of causes

Germany History GIFfrom Germany GIFs

(In)famous PV groups in or connected to Germany

“Those who only know one country, know no country” - Seymour Martin Lipset (inspired by Alexis de Tocqueville)

well-known and covered in research literature
diverse strategies, objectives, and ideological characteristics
active in Germany and/or banned by Germany (or EU)

(In)famous PV groups in or connected to Germany

Antifaschistische Aktion (Antifa, Germany and elsewhere),
Blood and Honour (B&H, transnational),
Grey Wolves (Turkey, but also transnational),
Hammerskins (transnational),
Hezbollah (Lebanon, but also transnational),
Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT, transnational),
Islamic State (IS, transnational),
Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands (‘Communist Party of Germany,’ KPD, Germany),
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE, Sri Lanka),
Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (‘National Democratic Party of Germany,’ NPD, Germany),
National Socialist Underground (NSU, Germany),
Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê (‘Kurdistan Workers’ Party,’ PKK, Turkey, Syria and several other countries including Germany),
Rote Armee Fraktion (‘Red Army Fraction,’ RAF, Germany),
Sozialistische Reichspartei (‘Socialist Reich Party,’ SRP, Germany),
Die Rechte (‘The Right’, Germany)

Antifa

Territory of action: international
Organisational structure: network
Membership: large
(main) Objective: oppose fascist forces
(common) Targets: political opponents
Repertoire of actions: low-level violence, property damage, doxxing

Blood & Honour

Territory of action: international (originally U.K.)
Organisational structure: network
Membership: large
(main) Objective: white ethnostate
(common) Targets: political and ethnic opponents
Repertoire of actions: low-level violence, terrorism

Grey Wolves

Territory of action: international (originally Turkish)
Organisational structure: hierarchical
Membership: large
(main) Objective: promote Turkish nationalism
(common) Targets: political opponents
Repertoire of actions: low-level violence

Hammerskins

Territory of action: international (originally U.S.)
Organisational structure: network
Membership: large
(main) Objective: white ethnostate
(common) Targets: political and ethnic opponents
Repertoire of actions: low-level violence, terrorism

Hezbollah

Territory of action: Lebanon, but also transnational
Organisational structure: hierarchical
Membership: large
(main) Objective: Islamic state in Lebanon
(common) Targets: Western forces, the power-sharing in Lebanon
Repertoire of actions: terrorism

Hizb ut-Tahrir

Territory of action: international
Organisational structure: network
Membership: large
(main) Objective: united Islamic caliphate
(common) Targets: political and ethnic opponents
Repertoire of actions: low-level violence, incitement to violence, terrorism

Islamic State

Territory of action: international
Organisational structure: network
Membership: large
(main) Objective: Islamic caliphate
(common) Targets: political, ethnic, religious opponents
Repertoire of actions: terrorism, militarised combat

Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands (KPD)

Territory of action: Germany, but with important international links
Organisational structure: hierarchical
Membership: large
(main) Objective: communist/socialist revolution
(common) Targets: political opponents
Repertoire of actions: low-level violence and agitation for revolution

Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam

Territory of action: Sri Lanka, but also transnational
Organisational structure: hierarchical
Membership: large
(main) Objective: independent Tamil state
(common) Targets: Sinhalese dominated Sri Lankan state
Repertoire of actions: assassination, guerrilla activity

National Socialist Underground

Territory of action: Germany
Organisational structure: network
Membership: small
(main) Objective: terrorise non-ethnic Germans
(common) Targets: non-ethnic Germans
Repertoire of actions: murder, robbery

Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (NPD)

Territory of action: Germany
Organisational structure: hierarchical
Membership: large
(main) Objective: German ethno-state
(common) Targets: political and ethnic opponents
Repertoire of actions: low-level violence, support for terrorism

Partiya Karkeren Kurdistane

Territory of action: prominently Turkey, but international advocates
Organisational structure:
Membership: large
(main) Objective: Kurdish statehood
(common) Targets: Turkish military and state
Repertoire of actions: guerrilla activity

Rote Armee Fraktion

Territory of action: Germany
Organisational structure: network
Membership: small
(main) Objective: revolutionary state
(common) Targets: German state, right-wing figures
Repertoire of actions: kidnapping, robbery, bombing, assassination

Sozialistische Reichspartei (SRP)

Territory of action: Germany
Organisational structure: hierarchical
Membership: large
(main) Objective: revive national socialist movement
(common) Targets: political opponents
Repertoire of actions: low-level violence, support for state violence

Other PV groups that will crop up in readings

al-Qaeda

Territory of action: international
Organisational structure: (hierarchical) network
Membership: large
(main) Objective: global Islamic caliphate
(common) Targets: U.S. and Western institutions and societies
Repertoire of actions: terrorism

Brigate Rosse

Territory of action: Italy
Organisational structure:
Membership: small
(main) Objective: revolutionary state
(common) Targets: Italian state institutions and NATO
Repertoire of actions: robberies, kidnapping, low-level violence

Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA, ‘Basque Homeland and Liberty’)

Territory of action: Basque country
Organisational structure: hierarchical
Membership: large
(main) Objective: leftist revolution, independent state
(common) Targets: state institutions
Repertoire of actions: kidnapping, terrorism

Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia

Territory of action: Colombia
Organisational structure: hierarchical
Membership: large
(main) Objective: leftist revolution
(common) Targets: state institutions, other paramilitaries
Repertoire of actions: kidnapping, terrorism, drug trade

Irish Republican Army

Territory of action: British Isles
Organisational structure: hierarchical
Membership: large
(main) Objective: united, independent Ireland
(common) Targets: British military and institutions
Repertoire of actions: terrorism

Testing: determinants of right-wing terrorism in the U.S.

Piazza (2017)
- theorising and testing causes

Orange Terror GIFfrom Orange GIFs

Piazza (2017) - testing causes

Three groups of motivations (p. 54)
- economic hardships and grievances (mechanism: drive resentment and support for terrorism)
- greater inclusion and empowerment of women and racial minorities (mechanism: perceived threat to privilege)
- resentment toward the U.S. political system and government (mechanism: necessitates ‘resistance against tyranny’)

Lays out differing theoretical/empirical contentions/findings about these motivations—and sets out to resolve them (theory-based and empirics-based puzzles) (Day and Koivu 2019)

Piazza (2017) - research design

the study uses a cross-sectional panel time series design to examine the predictive quality of a series of state and national-level economic, social and political indicators on counts of domestic terrorist attacks launched by right-wing terrorist movements and individuals in the 50 US states for the period 1970–2011.

Let’s break this down:

Piazza (2017) - research design

the study uses a cross-sectional panel time series design to examine the predictive quality of a series of state and national-level economic, social and political indicators on counts of domestic terrorist attacks launched by right-wing terrorist movements and individuals in the 50 US states for the period 1970–2011

‘cross-sectional panel time series’ = different clusters of units of analysis over time
- ‘in the 50 US states for the period 1970–2011’ = state-year is the unit of analysis (see Note 14)
‘predictive quality’ = research objective, predict (rather than ‘describe’ or ‘explain’), here meaning inferential statistics
‘series of state and national-level economic, social and political indicators’ = the (groups of) independent variables (IVs), corresponding to the 3 groups of motivations
‘counts of domestic terrorist attacks launched by right-wing terrorist movements and individuals’ = dependent variable (DV)

Piazza (2017) - research design

Variable group	Indicators
Economic grievance	Per cent in poverty
	Per cent employed in manufacturing
	Number of individual farms in state
Societal changes	Rate of abortion
	Per cent of labour force that is female
	Change in non-white state population
‘Big government’	measure of Democrat party dominance
	U.S. President a Democrat in given year
	Average income tax rate

Reading a regression table

Remember: regression is a tool for understanding a phenomenon as a linear function (generally) → (y = mx + b)

Numbers not in parentheses next to a variable: regression coefficient: expected change in DV for a one-unit increase in IV. NB: ositive or negative relationship?
Numbers inside parentheses next to a variable: standard error: estimate of the standard deviation of the coefficient
Asterisks/‘stars’: statistical significance: probability of results as extreme as observed result, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct. Smaller p-value means such an observation would be less likely under null hypothesis; hence, significance. Statistical significance suggests more precise estimates—NOT necessarily that one IV is more important than another.

Piazza (2017) - abridged regression table

Piazza (2017) - findings (interpetting reg. table)

right-wing terrorism not rooted in economic grievances, economic stress, or structural economic change
‘gendered’ dimension to right-wing extremist activity: where women are becoming more empowered, right-wing terrorism is more frequent
- predictors associated with women’s rights significantly boost the incidence of right-wing terrorism
- “On average, increases in state-level abortion rates or women’s participation in the workforce produce fewer than 0.05 more right-wing terrorist attacks per state per year.”
of ‘big gov.’ motivations, only the dummy variable for a Democrat U.S. President is significant
- suggests only peak-level and highly visible political predictors are associated with increased incidence of right-wing terrorism

Piazza (2017) - conclusions

economic factors are not reliable predictors of terrorist activity
social factors help drive right-wing terrorism. (‘ills afflicting “traditional” American society’)
partisan control over government matters at the national level, but not the state level, in determining right-wing terrorism

Any questions, concerns, feedback for this class?

Anonymous feedback here: https://forms.gle/NfF1pCfYMbkAT3WP6

Alternatively, please send me an email: m.zeller@lmu.de

References

Crenshaw, Martha. 1981. “The Causes of Terrorism.” Comparative Politics 13 (4): 379–99.

Day, Christopher, and Kendra L. Koivu. 2019. “Finding the Question: A Puzzle-Based Approach to the Logic of Discovery.” Journal of Political Science Education 15 (3): 377–86. https://doi.org/10.1080/15512169.2018.1493594.

Piazza, James A. 2017. “The Determinants of Domestic Right-Wing Terrorism in the USA: Economic Grievance, Societal Change and Political Resentment.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 34 (1): 52–80. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894215570429.